There is a bookie in Ireland named Paddy Powers who is taking 4 to 1 odds that trump will be impeached and 8 to 1 odds that Trump will be impeached in his first six months in office.
At first, this might seem counterintuitive, since the Congress is currently controlled by the Republicans. However, as long as Pence is not tainted by trump’s acts and is not impeached, then if trump’s impeachment and conviction are successful, then the Republicans would still have Pence as their lap dog.
Realistically the only way trump will be impeached before 2019 (after the midterm elections) is if the people who voted for trump rise up against him and make their loud voices heard by their Congressional representatives. And probably only way that trump will be impeached after the mid-term elections is if Democrats can win a super-majority in the House and the Senate.
While trump cannot be impeached until he takes office, legal scholars disagree whether trump can be impeached for acts that occurred before becoming president or if impeachable offenses are only those which take place once a president is sworn in. In Clinton v. Jones, the Supreme Court ruled that a sitting president is not immune from civil litigation arising from acts that took place before s/he became president. Remember that Clinton was impeached because of false statements (about his relationship with Monica Lewinsky) made under oath during a lawsuit against Paula Jones which arose out of actions of Clinton while he was governor of Arkansas and not while he was president.
Trump will be impeached because he is his own worst enemy. First, he doesn’t care or doesn’t care to know what the truth is so he spouts off any inane statement he chooses without regard to the veracity of his words. Second, he makes no apologies or admissions when he is confronted with his lies/untruths, he simply tries to weasel his way out of the corners that he gets backed into by journalists and politicians with ridiculous explanations about his lies. Third, he feels and acts as though he is above the law and social convention and that he is justified in doing so because DC and Wall Street are “the swamp” and only trump can clean them up.
So far trump has made only one really good decision to avert impeachment. Last year, Christopher Lewis Peterson, a law professor at the University of Utah, wrote an essay providing legal arguments for trump being impeached over his fraudulent advertising of Trump University. Apparently, trump’s attorneys found some merit in these arguments as trump decided in December to settle the three lawsuits pending against him and Trump University for $25 million. Of course, trump did not admit guilt in the settlement directly (but he agreed to reimburse almost everyone who paid for trump university’s phony programs).
Trump, while taking office tomorrow, still has dozens of lawsuits pending against his companies for fraud, unpaid bills, contract disputes and sexual discrimination. He is also personally fighting lawsuits for libel (due to some of his Tweets–big surprise) and violation of consumer protection laws (due to unsolicited texting). There are also the women who came out during his campaign who accused him of unwanted sexual advances. The Trump Foundation is also currently under investigation for soliciting donations without approval and using foundation money to benefit trump.
Best of all, both sides of the isle in Congress want to know more about pre-election activities of Russia with regards to influencing the elections and have begun investigations thereto. If this investigation is honest, probative, non-partisan and exhaustive, then the allegations that trump’s advisors were meeting with Kremlin advisors will be investigated thoroughly.
Obviously, if trump is found to have been colluding with Russia to influence U.S. elections then he will have committed a treasonous offense. While Republicans might be pathological in their willingness to stick together and get in line with the party, the individuals making up the party would probably not let an allegation of treason go unpunished.
Anyone who wants to make bets on when and for what trump is impeached should contact Paddy Powers. You just might make some serious cash!